Does Hitting the Post Count as a Shot on Target?
- Think Football Ideas
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 14 hours ago
While we live in a stat-obsessed football world, a simple tap-in or a 30-yard screamer isn’t just a goal anymore, it’s a data point. Coaches use it. Pundits weaponise it. Fantasy football managers live by it. And don’t even get us started on the betting crowd.
One stat that gets referenced more than your mate’s dodgy VAR takes is "shots on target." It seems straightforward, right? You shoot, it looks like it's going in, maybe the bar rattles a bit, must count. But alas, football is rarely that simple. The numbers don’t lie, but sometimes they do tease. Let’s get into it.
What is Considered a Shot on Target?
Alright, here's the official line: A shot on target is a goal, or a shot that would have gone in if it hadn’t been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by a desperate last-line clearance, where no player should ever be (yes, you last-ditch legends).
The key here is intent to score and goalward direction. So if a player cracks one and it’s flying straight into the top bins until the keeper gets a fingertip to it, yes, that’s a shot on target.
If a defender throws themselves into the line of fire and stops a clear goal-bound effort? It still is a shot on target. But if it flies into the stands and knocks out an unsuspecting fan eating a pie? Well, that’s a stat for the blooper reel, not the analytics board.
The Post Debate: Why Hitting the Woodwork Isn’t 'On Target'
Now, here’s where it gets spicy. You might think that smacking the post especially when it leaves the frame of the goal shaking like it's been drop-kicked, is surely on target. It’s so close! But nope. Not even close (statistically).
If the ball hits the post and goes wide, it is classed as a shot off target. Why? Because no keeper or defender intervened, and crucially, the ball wasn’t going in on its own. Harsh? Maybe. Accurate? According to the laws of data, yes.
Let’s be honest, it feels like it should count. But stats are colder than a winter night in Stoke. A ball hitting the post is like getting friend-zoned by someone who flirted with you all season. Close, but not enough.
What If It Hits the Post and Goes In?
Ah, now we're cooking. If the ball kisses the post and nestles into the net, it’s absolutely a shot on target, and more than that, it’s a goal.
The rule is simple: if the shot results in a goal, regardless of whether it brushes the post, the bar, or even deflects off a teammate’s backside, it’s counted as on target. So yes, post-and-in = sweet, sweet stats.
Post-Hit vs. On Target: Real Game Examples
Let’s rewind to the 2022 World Cup: Harry Kane’s second penalty against France. Missed. Smacked over. But what if it had hit the post and gone out? Same outcome, not a shot on target. And let’s not forget countless near-misses in the Champions League where the post denies footballing greatness, and the players' shot tallies.
Take Erling Haaland for example, a machine in boots. Yet even he’s had screamers bounce off the post and somehow not count towards his stats. It’s almost criminal how many would-be stunners vanish into statistical limbo.
How This Impacts Player Statistics
Now here's the kicker; hitting the post can look impressive, but statistically, it does zilch for a player’s efficiency. No xG bump. No improved shot accuracy. Just a goose egg in the 'on target' column.
This means players with explosive power who take on ambitious shots, think of Darwin Núñez, Vinicius Jr., even Bruno Fernandes, might seem less efficient on paper, even if they're threatening every match. Meanwhile, the tap-in merchants? They rack up those sweet stats. Crazy, right?
Do All Stat Trackers Agree?
Surprisingly, yes. From Opta to FBref to your cousin's fantasy app, the core rule remains the same: hit the post and it doesn’t count, unless it goes in. The consistency is nice, but it also means no one’s giving you mercy points for "almost glory."
That said, different platforms may present the data differently. Some will show post-hits in a separate column (if you’re lucky), but don’t expect it to bump your player’s average.
Why This Matters to Fans, Coaches, and Pundits
Fans scream "Unlucky!" when the post is rattled. Coaches clench their fists. Pundits? Well, they either call it wasteful or wax poetic about "fine margins." The truth is, those fine margins define seasons.
Stats don’t always reflect threat. A player who constantly tests the post is probably inches from brilliance, but to the cold eyes of the stat sheet, it’s just another missed chance. That disconnect can spark debates, change narratives, and even shift transfer valuations.
Should the Rules Change?
So here’s the million-dollar question: should hitting the post count as a shot on target? On one hand, it shows accuracy and intent. On the other, it’s still a miss, technically.
For now, the stat lords have spoken, no dice unless it’s in the net. But maybe, just maybe, it’s time to rethink what “on target” really means in a game of such beautiful chaos. Over to you, football gods. Or at least, the data nerds in the backroom.
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